In a curious little nook of the world, where the sunbeams danced and the shadows played, a question flitted through the air like a butterfly: “Is that a paper plane? Is that a pencil? Is it an eraser, perhaps?” But lo! A voice rang out, clear and bright, “Nay, my friends. That’s Elementary Man!”
A Sudden Summons
Elementary Man was stirring his lemonade while thinking about a million things in the world. Suddenly, the door banged open. However, Elementary Man did not flinch and instead continued to stir his drink. Then, he began to sip his lemonade and waited.
“One, two, three”
Immediately, as if on cue, a wild-eyed man stumbled in.
“It’s all gone!” gasped Lord Theodore Trustwell.
Finally, Elementary Man put down his cup. “Now, my dear friend, the trust fund?” he asked.
“Yes! Millions! Vanished like fog!” replied Trustwell.
Elementary Man raised his eyebrows. “Then we must investigate. Therefore, tell me from the beginning,” he urged.
The Last Fortune
Trustwell paced. “At the beginning of this year, I inherited millions from my uncle’s trust fund and I was overjoyed. Then, I tried to think of a way to double it in a jiffy!” he exclaimed.
Subsequently, “Indeed, a common dream,” said Elementary Man.
However, “But this was different! In fact, a system!” replied Trustwell with fervor.
Next, Elementary Man leaned forward. “Now, explain,” he urged.
Furthermore, Trustwell waved his hands. “Essentially, roulette. It’s all patterns! Moreover, I saw streaks! Specifically, red, red, red! Then, I bet!” he declared.
Thereafter, Elementary Man sighed. “Ah, I see a pattern of recklessness. Nevertheless, don’t mind me… go on with your tale,” he said.
Trustwell had an idea. “In fact, how about I show you rather than tell?” he suggested.
The Casino’s Glow
An hour later, they walked into the Golden Mirage Casino all dressed in fine clothes. Lights blinked. Coins clattered. Trustwell pointed. “Clearly, that wheel! It betrayed me!” he stated.
Elementary Man dismissed the notion. “Actually, it is a wheel which means it’s an object that has no emotions and intentions. Therefore, it can not betray,” he explained as they walked around.
A croupier approached, quite surprised on seeing Trustwell. “Now, what do we have here. Back again, sir?” he inquired.
Meanwhile, Trustwell turned pale. “No! I—” he stuttered.
But Elementary Man did not want to waste time. “Now, tell me plainly: how often did he win?” he demanded.
The croupier smirked. “Oh, indeed, he had streaks. A dozen wins! But then… well, streaks break,” he explained.
The Data
Later, back at Elementary Man’s study, the friends stared in confusion at the papers covered the desk. Then, Elementary Man tapped a chart. “Now, look here. You won ten times in a row,” he said.
Trustwell nodded. “Indeed, the pattern was real!” he affirmed.
But Elementary Man frowned. “No. That is the Clustering Illusion,” he explained.
Trustwell blinked. “Truly, the what?” he queried.
Elementary Man clarified. “A few points to understand. Firstly, your brain saw a pattern in random events. Secondly, the wheel has no memory. Thirdly, each spin is independent,” he explained.
Trustwell groaned. “Yet, I was sure!” he exclaimed.
The Last Bet
After an minute of dead calm, Elementary Man pulled Trustwell to his feet. “Now, we test a theory,” he declared.
They found themselves once again at the casino. Trustwell hesitated. “You mean… I should bet again?” he asked.
Elementary Man replied. “Indeed. Therefore, place a bet. Any bet will do,” he said.
Trustwell put a chip on black. Meanwhile, the wheel spun. Eventually, it landed on red.
Then, Elementary Man said, “Again,” he stated.
Moreover, Trustwell bet on black. Consequently, red came up again.
After that, Elementary Man inquired. “Now, what next?” he asked.
Thus, Trustwell wiped his brow. “Truly, I… I don’t know what to think,” he admitted.
The Owner Speaks
A deep voice laughed. “Finally, you’ve learned the truth!”
They looked around and saw the casino owner approach. “Indeed, people see patterns in the chaos. Moreover, they think they can predict chance. Thus, that’s how I make my fortune,” he explained.
Elementary Man nodded. “Similarly, that is how my friend lost his,” he remarked.
The Aftermath
Finally, back at the study, Trustwell slumped. “So, it was all in my head?” he asked.
Then, Elementary Man poured his black tea. “Indeed,” he confirmed.
Afterwards, Trustwell inquired. “And there was never a pattern?” he questioned.
Subsequently, Elementary Man shook his head. “Certainly, no pattern. Rather, just randomness,” he said.
Finally, Trustwell exhaled. “Truly, that was highly intellectual, man!” he exclaimed.
Elementary Man smiled. “Nay, my friend. That’s Elementary Man!” he declared.
Moral of the Short Story
The Clustering Illusion tricks our minds into seeing patterns where none exist. In gambling, people believe in streaks, but every event is independent. Randomness does not follow rules. Trusting in false patterns can lead to ruin, as Trustwell learned the hard way.
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